Assessing the accuracy of empirical decline curve techniques for forecasting production in unconventional reservoirs: a case study of Haynesville, Marcellus, and Marcellus Upper Shale

Abstract Decline curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method to estimate the production performance and ultimate recovery of conventional unconventional reservoirs. Due nature shale wells, traditional decline methods are not ideal for analyzing their behavior. In response, different empirical have been developed which rely on mathematical statistical approaches can result in varying forecasts. This study compares fourteen methods, along with Arps method, terms ability match history, sensitivity data size, effect flow type, forecast, estimation. The were tested three wells from Haynesville Shale (Lorikeet Field), Marcellus (Ostrich Marcellus-Upper (Penguin Field) respectively. concludes that each may be useful cases, engineers should choose best models based specific characteristics circumstances. Recommendations also provided an effective evaluation uncertainty application DCA. primary objective this improve accuracy reliability DCA predictions reservoir types declining modes.